How it's calculated
Your savings only have to cover the part of your spending that other income doesn't. Divide that by your withdrawal rate:
If other income starts after you retire, you also need a bridge: the other income amount for each year of the gap. Calcist keeps this simple and assumes the bridge money just keeps pace with inflation. Then it projects your savings, with deposits at the end of each month and the yearly return converted to a monthly rate:
To compare like with like, the target is grown by inflation to the year you retire, or your projected savings are divided by the same inflation factor to show them in today's dollars.
Worked example
You're 35, want to retire at 65 and spend $60,000 a year in today's money. Social Security of $24,000 starts at 65. Savings must cover $36,000, so at 4% the target is 36,000 ÷ 0.04 = $900,000 in today's dollars. At 3% inflation that's $900,000 × 1.03³⁰ = $2,184,536 in 30 years. With $50,000 saved and $1,000 a month at 7%, you'd have about $1,550,065, or $638,606 in today's money: 71% of the target. Saving $542.54 more a month would close the gap.
Where the 4% rule comes from
In 1994 financial planner William Bengen tested US stock and bond returns going back to 1926. He asked how much a retiree could take in the first year, then raise each year for inflation, without running out over 30 years in any period he tested. With half to three-quarters in stocks, the answer was about 4%. In 1998 three Trinity University professors (Cooley, Hubbard and Walz) ran a similar test, often called the Trinity study, and reported success rates for different withdrawal rates, time spans and stock/bond mixes.
Dividing spending by 4% is the same as multiplying it by 25. A 3.5% rate means about 28.6×, and 3% means about 33×.
Limits of the 4% rule
- It's based on past US returns, one of the strongest markets in history. Future returns may be lower.
- It was tested over 30 years. Retiring at 45 might need the money to last 50 years, which points to a lower rate.
- It ignores fees and taxes. A 1% yearly fee takes a large bite out of a 4% withdrawal.
- It assumes you never cut spending. In practice people who trim spending after a bad year can usually start higher.
Limitations
- Spending is rarely flat. Many people spend more early in retirement and more on health care later.
- Taxes aren't included. If most of your savings are in a traditional 401(k) or IRA, withdrawals are taxed, so include the tax in your spending.
- Returns are steady here. Real markets aren't. Use the retirement withdrawal calculator to see how the order of good and bad years matters.
- For your Social Security figure, check your own estimate at ssa.gov or use the Social Security calculator.
A planning estimate, not financial, tax or investment advice. Every assumption is listed under the result.
Sources
- Bengen, W. P. (1994), Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data, Journal of Financial Planning (FPA reprint)
- Cooley, Hubbard and Walz (1998), Retirement Savings: Choosing a Withdrawal Rate That Is Sustainable, AAII Journal (the Trinity study)
- Social Security Administration: Retirement benefits
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index