How pace is calculated
time = pace × distance
distance = time ÷ pace
speed = distance ÷ time
1 mile = 1.609344 km (exact)
Pace is the time for one kilometer or one mile. Speed is the reverse: distance per hour. A 6:00 per mile pace is 10 mph.
Race-time prediction (Riegel formula)
Peter Riegel found that, for runners, time grows a little faster than distance: doubling the distance takes about 2.08 times as long (21.06). The formula is an estimate. It works best between about 1 mile and the marathon, and assumes you've trained for the longer distance.
Worked example
You run 10 km in 50:00. Pace = 50 min ÷ 10 km = 5:00 per km. Per mile: 5:00 × 1.609344 = 8:02.8, shown as 8:03 per mile. Speed = 10 km ÷ (50/60) h = 12 km/h, or 7.46 mph.
Predicted marathon: 50:00 × (42.195 ÷ 10)1.06 = 50:00 × 4.60 = about 3:50:01.
Race distances
| Race | Kilometers | Miles |
|---|---|---|
| 5K | 5 | 3.107 |
| 10K | 10 | 6.214 |
| Half marathon | 21.0975 | 13.109 |
| Marathon | 42.195 | 26.219 |
Limitations
- Splits assume an even pace. Hills, wind, heat and fatigue change real splits.
- Race predictions are less reliable from very short races, for beginners, and for ultramarathons.
- GPS watches often measure a little long in races, so your watch pace may be slightly faster than the official one.
Sources
- Riegel PS. Athletic records and human endurance. American Scientist. 1981;69(3):285–290 the paper behind the 1.06 exponent.