How the comparison works
This compares US traditional and Roth accounts under federal tax rules. Both accounts start from the same pre-tax budget. With a traditional account the whole amount goes in and is taxed when you withdraw it. With a Roth, tax comes off first and the rest grows tax-free.
Roth = budget × (1 − tax rate now) × growth
growth = (1 + r) + (1 + r)² + … + (1 + r)ⁿ for yearly contributions
Equal tax rates give equal results
Multiplication doesn't care about order. Taking 22% off before growth or after growth leaves the same amount. So the only thing that decides the winner is whether your tax rate is higher now or later. The break-even retirement tax rate is simply your tax rate now.
Worked example
$10,000 a year for 30 years at 7%: the traditional account grows to $1,010,730. At a 12% retirement rate you keep $889,443. The Roth gets $7,800 a year after 22% tax, growing to $788,370, all tax-free. Traditional wins by $101,073 because 12% later is less than 22% now. If you expected 30% later, Roth would win.
What this leaves out
- Contribution limits. The limit is the same dollar amount for both. If you max out, a Roth holds more after-tax money: $24,500 in a Roth 401(k) is worth more than $24,500 in a traditional one. To compare fairly at the limit, the traditional saver would also need to invest the tax savings.
- Your actual rates. Use your marginal rate now (the rate on the money you'd contribute) and the average rate you expect on withdrawals. Retirement withdrawals often fill lower brackets first.
- Other rules. Roth IRAs have no required minimum distributions, and traditional withdrawals can raise taxes on Social Security and Medicare premiums. Roth withdrawals of earnings need the account to be 5 years old and you to be 59½.
- Matching contributions from an employer go in pre-tax either way and aren't included.
Sources
- IRS Publication 590-A – traditional and Roth IRA contributions
- IRS Publication 590-B – taxation of distributions and qualified Roth distributions
- IRS Notice 2025-67 – 2026 contribution limits